In the years between 1981 and 1984, the annual total rainfall was far lower than the mean long-term rainfall. The average rainfallvaries from less than 500 to 1,000 mm.iv. The rate and variability of increasing temperature have dramatically increased, making it more difficult for local communities to foresee the intensity and magnitude of temperature even for the next few years. **10% level of significant. By continuing to use our website, you are agreeing to, Journal of Water, Sanitation & Hygiene for Development, Time series trend analysis of temperature and rainfall in lake Tana Sub-basin, Ethiopia, Potential impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture of a semi-arid basin in Jordan, Distribution of the serial correlation coefficient, Evaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution and concentration of precipitation: a case for the region of Southeastern Anatolia Project, Turkey, Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for rice cultivation in Northeast Thailand, Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Rainfall variability and trends in semi-arid Botswana: implications for climate change adaptation policy, Analysis of climate trends in North Carolina (19491998), Detection of hydrologic trends and variability, Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia, Estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture in low-income countries: household level evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Decadal climatic variability, trends, and future scenarios for the North China Plain, Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 19512002, Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. 2010 ). 5.3.1. The line connecting the fixed average is known as averagely moving. Months in summer gainhighest rainfall whereas the winter months receive the reduced amount. Kiremit season rainfall revealed a significantly increasing trend of about 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% at DB station and the magnitude of significantly decreasing trend was 0.90 mm/year and 16.20% at SD station. Winter (December, January and February)In winter, the overhead sun is far south of equator. The variation for the belg season is presented in Figure2. In general, these future projections point towards increases in summertime temperatures and modifications in precipitation across both regions. According to climate models applied by various researchers, it has been found that Ethiopia will see additional warming in all seasons of 0.72.3 C by the 2020s and 1.42.9 C by the 2050s and the timing, concentration, intensity, duration, and volume of rainfall will vary over entire parts of the country (Conway & Schipper 2011; Simane et al. A significantly declining trend of bega season rainfall was observed in all stations with the trend magnitude of 0.61 mm/year and 7.50% in GIN station to 0.21 mm/year and 56.40% in DBS station. (2011) and Manandhar et al. The annual average temperature of the area is 19.7 C. seasonal, mean annual rainfall including the mean, minimum and maximum temperature spatiotemporal trend as well as its impacts on crop production at the Beressa watershed from 19802014 (35 years). According to Al-Bakri et al. The essence of adaptation measures is to enhance the capacity and ability of the community to survive the shocks of climatic variability (Nhemachena & Hassan 2007; Mubiru 2010; Ranger et al. You can download the paper by clicking the button above. This study assessed the historical (19832005) and future (20262100) rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) trends of the Ziway Lake Basin (Ethiopia). It builds on, among others, on the recommendations of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, but a substantial amount of information that became available afterwards has also been included.While this study is not meant to be a comprehensive overview of all aspects of climate change impact on the RMs economy it does reflect the breadth and depth of researches that had been done in the RM to date, and it provides a link between a global phenomenon and the sectors development issues facing the country. 2017a, 2017b). 2012). However, in the belg season during the period 19802014 the five years' average moving annual and seasonal rainfall was considerably variable. The aim of this study was to evaluate climate variability and characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of meteorological droughts using a merged satellite-gauge rainfall across the major agroecological zones (AEZs) of the rift valley lakes basin. Most of the studies about rainfall and temperature characteristics are limited by short-term and long-term time series available for most parts of the regions. The correlation between rainfall during the months of MaySeptember and crops has a positive relationship, except in the cases of beans, peas and chickpeas, which are inversely correlated with rainfall during the month of June. Density distribution plots of observed climate indices for meteorological stations and gridded indices are also analysed, which indicate significant negative trends in the annual number of frost days and significant increasing trends in warm nights in the EH region over the 19602000 period. The percentage change over a period of time can be obtained from Sen's median slope and mean by assuming the linear trend in the long-term series using the following formula: In statistical terms, the moving average is also known as running average, used in order to explore a set of various data by creating an average value of various subsets for a data set. The results revealed that the magnitude of significantly increasing trend and variability was observed in mean annual rainfall for DB station (at 0.28 mm/year and 1.07%). 2014). There has been a continuous decrease in the duration and distribution of rainfall during the last 35 years. Academia.edu no longer supports Internet Explorer. Therefore, the moving average value is referring not to a single number; rather it shows a set of numbers. Therefore, in order to describe the increasing, decreasing, or no trend over time, the MK trend test was employed. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. Results of correlation analysis between monthly and seasonal rainfall with crop production were insufficient to conclude the impact of rainfall and temperature on crop production. For more than 70% of the world's population, the primary source of their livelihood has originated from weather sensitive agriculture (Suarez et al. The Physiographic Divisions of Ethiopia, 3.3. During this period,the Northeast Trade Winds carrying non-moisture-laden dominates the region. As shown in Figure2, during the period 19802014 the seasonal rainfall trend of the Beressa watershed for the kiremit season shows less rainfall variability throughout the study periods. The reduction in precipitation is projected to be steepest over Northwestern Province and lessens southwards. The trend of increasing maximum temperature is stronger than the minimum temperature. For example, months from March to June in Ethiopiahave records of highest temperatures. Annual total precipitation significantly reduces while the frequency of exceedance of the 95th and 99th percentile thresholds increases significantly. Observed Data Out of seven rainfall stations, only two stations (one at 5% and one at 10% level of significance) showed a significant trend during belg season, while during bega season, four stations (three at 5% and one at 10% level of significance) showed a significant trend. Significantly, the increasing long-term annual minimum and maximum temperature during the study periods indicates that it is more likely this would contribute to the increase of mean annual temperature. On the other hand, 19 years (54.3%) recorded more than the annual average rainfall. The minimum temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale. Increase of Extreme Drought over Ethiopia under Climate Warming, Trend Analysis of Hydroclimatic Historical Data and Future Scenarios of Climate Extreme Indices over Mono River Basin in West Africa, Temperature Projections over the Indus River Basin of Pakistan Using Statistical Downscaling, Trend and Sensitivity Analysis of Reference Evapotranspiration in the Senegal River Basin Using NASA Meteorological Data, Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Inflows Using Multi Climate-Models under RCPsThe Case of Mangla Dam in Pakistan, Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources of the Bheri River Basin, Nepal, Analyses of Observed and Anticipated Changes in Extreme Climate Events in the Northwest Himalaya, Climate change impacts on land use in Gadaref and North Kordofan States and future Desert sheep distribution in Sudan, Improving Hydro-Climatic Projections with Bias-Correction in Sahelian Niger Basin, West Africa, Trends and Changes in Recent and Future Penman-Monteith Potential Evapotranspiration in Benin (West Africa), Seasonal Variability of Historical and Projected Future Climate in the Kathmandu Valley, Assessing Future Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow within the Alabama River Basin, Prediction of Climate Change Effects on Plantain Yield in Ondo State, Nigeria, Improving Hydro-Climatic Projections with Bias-Correction in Sahelian Niger Basin, Estimation of Hydrological Components under Current and Future Climate Scenarios in Guder Catchment, Upper Abbay Basin, Ethiopia, Using the SWAT, Statistical downscaling of global circulation models to assess future climate changes in the Black Volta basin of Ghana, Estimation of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources Using a Deterministic Distributed Hydrological Model in Cte dIvoire: Case of the Aghien Lagoon, Climate Change Impact on Flood Frequency and Source Area in Northern Iran under CMIP5 Scenarios, Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks, Detection and attribution of seasonal temperature changes in India with climate models in the CMIP5 archive, Statistical analysis of extreme weather events in the Diyala River basin, Iraq, Evaluating the impact of climate change on extreme temperature and precipitation events over the Kashmir Himalaya, Recurrence Spectra of European Temperature in Historical Climate Simulations, Are we using the right fuel to drive hydrological models? 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